The Real End Game in Iraq

General David Petraeus delivered his much anticipated report to Congress on September 10.  While holding out hope that some U.S. forces would be withdrawn from Iraq by mid-2008, Gen. Petraeus admitted that the number of forces thereafter that would remain in Iraq will equal pre-surge levels – of up to approximately 160,000.

Why?  Part of the answer may come from looking at what is glaringly absent from this week’s commentary over Petraeus’ testimony – Iraq’s vast oil wealth.  The battle being waged in Iraq right now over Iraq’s vast oil wealth revolves around the passage by the Iraqi Parliament of a series of laws – known collectively as the Iraq Hydrocarbon Law 0 – that will restructure the oil industry and hand control of Iraqi oil to western oil companies for the first time in 35 years. 

There are two important implications for the future of the war if the Iraq Hydrocarbon Law is passed by the Iraqi Parliament.  First, the current Iraq regime will begin signing long-term contracts with U.S. and other western oil companies.  These oil companies, who have for years proudly shown the weight they carry in Washington, will undoubtedly pressure the U.S. government to maintain a large military presence in Iraq to secure their investment and activities in extracting Iraqi oil.

The second implication of this law is more long-term.  Should a future Iraqi government ever attempt to modify or change the very pro-corporate language in the Iraq Hydrocarbon Law (in order to assert more control over their own oil reserves), the U.S. will have a ready-made legal justification for a new military intervention. 

If passed, the Iraq Hydrocarbon Law will open Iraq’s oil reserves to oil companies– meaning that the wealth of Iraq will be in the hands of foreign investors for the foreseeable future.  So long as the oil is controlled by these entities, one can expect that General after General will be submitting reports to Congress, and that the hope for troop withdrawal will be something that stays with us for the next 35 years.

Posted by Dave Robinson, Executive Director, Pax Christi USA.

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For more information on Pax Christi USA, see web site www.paxchristiusa.org.  Also, you can listen to the podcast of an interview with Dave Robinson on “Pax Christi USA, Preaching Nonviolence” on Provoke Radio (September 9, 2007 program).  Provoke is a weekly radio program on contemporary social issues sponsored by the Maryland Province of Jesuits: http://www.provokeradio.com/archives.cfm.

Comments

[William Brennan]

Truly, an interesting piece. As much as I hear about the need to pass the Iraqi oil law because it equally (or at least attempts to) divides profits between Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds, I have yet to hear about this major drawback in the law. Unfortunately, I fear that even if this law is not signed individual communities (take the Kurds for example) will sign on with corporations regardless (as repeatedly reported in the NY Times and the New Yorker). Thus, I see your point but am also troubled by the Catch 22 of whole the situation.

The ideal would probably be a Hydrocarbon law without western corporate control. Of course, that would require technology sharing/donation by major western powers. Alas, either we're not that generous or Bush hasnt thought that far ahead. (probably both).

[Elizabeth Lockyear]

What can we do to stop this? I heard a man named Packard say on Bill Moyers last night that he feared that he would wake up one morning and find that we had invaded Iran and were in another war. What can we do since Congress seems totally helpless to do its oversight job and will not withhold funds from this war-mongering president?